Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6df3…b8be sports 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$340 (-11%) realized −$323 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%53W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$190
14 days−$559
30 days−$472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$502
crypto 3% +$42
other 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -10.6% -19.1% 42% 39% -31.0%
≤30d 97 -8.0% -16.7% 55% 48% -23.0%
≤90d 97 -8.0% -16.7% 55% 48% -23.0%
all 97 -8.0% -16.7% 55% 48% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 48% -23.0%
10% -24.7% 43% -30.4%
15% -32.0% 38% -37.1%
20% -38.7% 25% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$29 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$323
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses53 / 44
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage16d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 39¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $76 −$42 -56%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$1 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $13 +$18 +143%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$5 +81%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$2 -18%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $76 −$42 -55%
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $119 −$119 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $11 +$10 +92%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $21 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 −$1 -46%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $48 +$51 +105%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $38 +$12 +31%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $8 +$12 +140%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $17 +$12 +70%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $15 +$32 +211%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Sta Jun 09 $16 +$3 +19%
Map Handicap: MSC (-1.5) vs AaB Bulls (+1.5) Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $15 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs XI Esport (+1.5) Jun 09 $76 $0 +0%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $14 +$9 +66%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 +$5 +33%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $9 +$11 +112%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu Jun 08 $22 +$8 +37%
Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs The Last Resort (+1.5) Jun 08 $23 +$26 +113%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $39 +$1 +2%
Map Handicap: ex-MANA (-1.5) vs STEP (+1.5) Jun 08 $31 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $15 +$6 +40%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $72 +$31 +43%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $38 +$35 +91%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $105 −$30 -28%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $28 +$21 +74%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 07 $20 +$7 +36%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $16 +$24 +146%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $124 −$124 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 28¢ $34 12m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $20 59m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $9 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 63¢ $4 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 3h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 67¢ $1 5h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 67¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $31 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $1 8h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 100¢ $11 9h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 55¢ $2 9h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 55¢ $1 9h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 52¢ $3 9h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) SELL TDK 50¢ $8 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 337 history records