Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6dfc…e90b crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 505d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%39W / 11L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$2
other 21% +$1
politics 7% $0
economics 6% $0
tech 4% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 50 +0.3% -9.2% 78% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.91 per $1 lost it wins $8.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

505d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses39 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage505d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $800 in March? Apr 02 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? Feb 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in December? Jan 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Dec 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? Nov 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 05 $6 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 05 $9 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 14 $39 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Won Hee-ryong be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Anton Pisaroglu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 20 Mar 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 06 $15 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in Assists? Feb 14 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $54 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 30d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $51 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 91d
Will BNB reach $800 in March? BUY No 98¢ $43 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 122d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $38 122d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $17 151d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $32 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $27 181d
Will Solana reach $210 in December? BUY No 100¢ $30 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $32 212d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $23 241d
Will Solana reach $300 in October? BUY No 100¢ $26 243d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $13 272d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? BUY No 100¢ $34 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $19 301d
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? BUY No 100¢ $28 303d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 333d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $37 334d
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 393d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 395d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 395d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 396d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? BUY No 100¢ $8 423d
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? BUY No 99¢ $6 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.84 · official $53.84 (match) · 103 history records