Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:17:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6dff…3b98 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+5%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate28%12W / 31L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$31
other 27% $0
sports 11% $0
economics 10% +$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 43 +0.7% -8.9% 28% 7% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 7% -4.3%
10% -17.6% 5% -13.5%
15% -25.6% 2% -21.8%
20% -32.9% 2% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×195.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×78.11 per $1 lost it wins $78.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses12 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage554d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Jun 26 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Apr 22 $64 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jan 24 $64 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Oct 28 $31 +$31 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? Oct 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 October 6-12? Oct 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 September 29-October 5? Oct 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 14 $0 $0 +22%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Jan 14 $0 $0 -85%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 14 $0 $0 +20%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Dec 19 $0 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $6 $0 -0%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Everton wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $6 $0 -0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Dec 19 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $63 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $64 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $64 153d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 BUY No 100¢ $64 232d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $62 240d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 247d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 247d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $31 250d
Will Solana reach $300 October 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $31 258d
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 September 29-October 5? BUY No 100¢ $31 267d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $31 273d
Will Ethereum hit $6000 by February 28 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 500d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 528d
Will someone else be inaugurated? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 528d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 528d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 528d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 528d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 538d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 554d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 554d
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 554d
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 554d
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 554d
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 554d
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 554d
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 554d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 554d
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 554d
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 554d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 554d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.91 · official $62.91 (match) · 89 history records