Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6D 0x6dff…1941 other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$4 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate65%22W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$3,136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 50% −$11
other 25% +$5
sports 12% +$4
politics 12% −$1
crypto 0% −$6
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -12.9% -21.2% 57% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -6.5% -15.4% 75% 0% -9.7%
all 34 -0.0% -9.5% 65% 29% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 29% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 26% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 18% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$3,136
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses22 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage455d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,138 $3,136 −$2 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 28 $3,141 −$4 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 28 $3,145 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 25 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 25 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 24 $1 +$1 +45%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 09 $5 +$9 +186%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 02 $3 +$4 +108%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $1,490 −$2 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $1,492 −$2 -0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 26 above $335? Feb 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of January? Feb 02 $5 +$1 +12%
FC Utrecht vs. KRC Genk: O/U 1.5 Jan 27 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-17? Jan 19 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship? Jan 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club end in a draw? Jan 06 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 29? Dec 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 23 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-03? Dec 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 27? Nov 28 $2 +$1 +96%
Will Jayson Tatum win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-10-25? Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs. Jasmine Paolini Nov 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-25? Nov 21 $3 +$5 +194%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jul 01 $2 $0 +3%
Will NDP win 31 or more seats in the next Canadian Election? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Office of Personnel Management be most efficient on March 31? Apr 14 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,138 10m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,138 32m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,141 1h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,141 2h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,145 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 18d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 99¢ $1 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 98¢ $2 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? BUY No 99¢ $5 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 38d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 46d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 46d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $1 101d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Charles Oliveira 35¢ $5 114d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 120d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,489 127d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,490 127d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $1,490 127d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $1,492 127d
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 26 above $335? BUY No 33¢ $5 150d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of January? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 150d
FC Utrecht vs. KRC Genk: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2 157d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 163d
Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship? BUY No 35¢ $3 177d
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $4 177d
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 29? BUY Up 52¢ $3 182d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? BUY No 75¢ $3 194d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,136.06 · official $3,136.06 (match) · 70 history records