Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:02:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6dff…e1bd other 261 markets active 2h ago coverage 840d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,268 (-1%) realized −$2,253 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate41%106W / 150L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$794per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$2,085now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$152
14 days−$38
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$77
other 33% −$919
sports 4% −$326
crypto 2% −$675
world 2% −$302
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$132
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 57% -11.7%
≤30d 31 -12.1% -20.5% 52% 48% -9.7%
≤90d 98 -25.0% -32.1% 34% 27% -10.0%
all 256 -17.7% -25.5% 41% 28% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 28% -10.6%
10% -32.7% 20% -19.2%
15% -39.2% 15% -27.0%
20% -45.1% 11% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$73 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

840d coverage
Net worth$2,085
Realized−$2,253
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses106 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)256 / 261
History coverage840d
Avg bet$794
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $500 $506 +$6 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $304 +$108 +36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$109 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,008 −$1,000 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 +$83 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $505 +$83 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $503 +$44 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,118 +$412 +19%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$55 -68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 +$28 +14%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will JT Poston win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 07 $1,006 +$114 +11%
Will Eric Cole win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 31 $201 −$93 -46%
Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $106 −$70 -66%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $53 +$59 +111%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 25 $302 +$80 +26%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 25 $302 −$11 -4%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 23 $103 −$102 -99%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $104,848 $0 +0%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $5,304 +$85 +2%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $1,906 −$43 -2%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $2,001 +$18 +1%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $113 −$97 -86%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $2,002 +$38 +2%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $51 −$49 -94%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $103 −$88 -86%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $102 +$12 +12%
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Jake Knapp finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $412 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $413 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 35h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $588 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $588 41h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $547 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $603 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,798 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $504 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $404 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $26 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,085.17 · official $2,085.17 (match) · 692 history records