Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e00…4cf1 sports 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$379 (-29%) realized −$377 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%10W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$162
other 39% −$143
crypto 6% −$69
world 2% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-61.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -57.1% -61.2% 16% 16% -43.0%
≤30d 63 -57.1% -61.2% 16% 16% -43.0%
≤90d 63 -57.1% -61.2% 16% 16% -43.0%
all 63 -57.1% -61.2% 16% 16% -43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.2% 16% -43.0%
10% -64.9% 16% -48.4%
15% -68.3% 16% -53.4%
20% -71.4% 11% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$377
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses10 / 53
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)63 / 70
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) England 95¢ 94¢ $151 $150 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $42 −$20 -49%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 $0 -7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 $0 -7%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 $0 -7%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +55%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$7 +48%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $25 −$3 -11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$3 -11%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$3 -6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $25 −$14 -56%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 −$26 -52%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $151 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $21 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 8h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $10 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $11 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $21 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 62¢ $6 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $6 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 48¢ $7 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $20 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $21 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $7 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $7 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $7 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 36h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 36h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $5 36h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $5 36h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $7 37h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $7 37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $7 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $7 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $7 37h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 64¢ $6 37h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $7 38h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $7 38h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $7 38h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.25 · official $219.25 (match) · 113 history records