Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6e03…8b79 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,831 (+22%) realized +$1,832 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$145
7 days+$852
14 days+$867
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$1,236
sports 34% +$485
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +17.5% +6.4% 40% 40% +24.4%
≤30d 42 -24.3% -31.6% 31% 31% -12.7%
≤90d 53 +2.1% -7.6% 45% 45% +9.3%
all 53 +2.1% -7.6% 45% 45% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 45% +9.3%
10% -16.4% 42% -1.2%
15% -24.5% 42% -10.7%
20% -31.9% 34% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$87 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$1,832
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage66d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $232 +$111 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $233 +$209 +89%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $82 −$80 -98%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$164 +107%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$302 +980%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $203 +$257 +126%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$88 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $606 +$263 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $142 +$119 +84%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $106 −$105 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 04 $56 +$50 +89%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $122 −$120 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $588 +$412 +70%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 26 $107 −$105 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? May 23 $522 +$81 +16%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $304 +$205 +67%
Spread: Pistons (-14.5) May 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-10? May 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 2 - 2 Manchester City FC? May 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 3 - 3 Manchester City FC? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 20 $202 −$202 -100%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 2 - 3 Manchester City FC? May 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 20 $324 −$324 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $314 −$314 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 20 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $71 +$75 +105%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $402 +$79 +20%
Will Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? May 12 $46 +$109 +237%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $61 +$41 +67%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $82 +$238 +291%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $132 +$89 +67%
Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions May 10 $112 +$55 +49%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 10 $137 +$138 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 10h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $232 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $12 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $442 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $233 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $31 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $15 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $253 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 4d
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $61 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $316 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $66 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $86 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $15 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $31 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $460 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $190 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $31 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $869 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $203 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.48 · official $24.48 (match) · 99 history records