Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6E 0x6e03…1b54 world 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+0%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%43W / 62L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$7
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$10
sports 18% +$6
other 15% −$6
economics 13% −$2
politics 6% +$33
crypto 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.4% -6.5% 12% 12% -9.4%
≤30d 35 +80.0% +62.9% 34% 9% -9.3%
≤90d 51 +54.7% +40.0% 33% 6% -9.2%
all 105 +26.7% +14.6% 41% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.6% 4% -9.2%
10% +3.7% 4% -17.9%
15% -6.4% 3% -25.8%
20% -15.5% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late +53% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses43 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage474d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $147 $147 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 38¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $203 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $202 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $375 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $199 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $18 $0 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $21 −$2 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $338 +$5 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $594 +$3 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $172 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $187 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $170 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $157 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $105 +$7 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $503 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $201 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $201 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $521 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $233 +$2 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $163 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $164 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $177 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $310 +$11 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $160 +$3 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $4 $0 -11%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $4 −$1 -31%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $28 −$12 -42%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 29 $147 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $32 −$3 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $144 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $146 −$2 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $157 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $4 $0 +7%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 15 $214 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $251 +$6 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $9 −$2 -17%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $145 −$9 -6%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $611 +$9 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $435 +$29 +7%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $1,600 +$6 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $86 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $886 −$5 -1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $36 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $147 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $162 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $162 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $32 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $40 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $40 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $153 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $160 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $160 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $159 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $159 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $175 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $32 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $39 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $18 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $176 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $176 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.14 · official $147.11 (match) · 424 history records