Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:15:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6E 0x6e05…2ebc sports 795 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,222 (-1%) realized −$493 · open −$729
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%405W / 384L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$1,455est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$507
7 days+$1,530
14 days−$8,762
30 days−$8,702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$7,566
other 49% +$4,504
world 1% +$259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +37.6% +24.5% 58% 58% +28.5%
≤30d 175 -23.6% -30.8% 34% 34% -28.1%
≤90d 789 -2.6% -11.8% 51% 50% -10.5%
all 789 -2.6% -11.8% 51% 50% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 50% -10.5%
10% -20.3% 48% -19.0%
15% -28.0% 43% -26.9%
20% -35.0% 35% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$202 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,230
Realized−$493
Unrealized−$729
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses405 / 384
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,455
Open positions6
Markets (closed)789 / 795
History coverage72d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 789 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $471 $472 +$2 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $453 $459 +$6 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $174 $169 −$5 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $114 $116 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 46¢ 1¢ $684 $13 −$671 (-98%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 21¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 183 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $155 +$145 +93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $138 +$162 +117%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $170 +$130 +76%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $219 +$81 +37%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $426 −$213 -50%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $306 +$144 +47%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $130 +$180 +138%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +150%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $147 +$102 +70%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $320 +$130 +41%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $147 +$33 +22%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $151 −$7 -5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $65 −$2 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $292 +$158 +54%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $281 +$169 +60%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $171 +$279 +163%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $28 −$1 -3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$1 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $97 −$2 -3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $174 +$276 +158%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $124 −$7 -6%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $37 −$1 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $214 −$7 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $140 −$9 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $42 −$1 -3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $129 −$7 -6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $46 −$1 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $56 −$2 -3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $144 −$9 -6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $129 −$7 -6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $46 −$1 -3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $60 −$2 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $28 −$1 -3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $260 −$10 -4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $320 −$320 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $320 −$320 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $212 −$212 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $207 −$207 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $320 −$320 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $171 −$171 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $324 −$324 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $207 −$207 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $288 −$288 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $194 −$194 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $220 −$220 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $220 −$220 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $292 −$292 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $302 −$302 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $153 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 21¢ $63 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $86 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $10 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $132 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $6 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $132 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $16 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $17 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $4 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $79 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $137 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 46¢ $140 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 53¢ $470 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $155 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 37¢ $111 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $149 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $161 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $158 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $67 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL No 71¢ $211 7h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $213 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $170 7h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $213 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $176 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,229.65 · official $1,228.18 (match) · 1925 history records