Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6E 0x6e0a…db34 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+6%) realized +$76 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$239
sports 17% +$272
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -25.3% -32.4% 30% 30% -6.8%
≤30d 10 -25.3% -32.4% 30% 30% -6.8%
≤90d 10 -25.3% -32.4% 30% 30% -6.8%
all 10 -25.3% -32.4% 30% 30% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 30% -6.8%
10% -38.9% 20% -15.7%
15% -44.8% 20% -23.9%
20% -50.2% 20% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$65 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$76
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $502 +$60 +12%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $82 −$72 -87%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$374 +365%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 11h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 11h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 11h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.61 · official $48.61 (match) · 16 history records