Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:55:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6E 0x6e0d…fe97 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$67 (+6%) realized +$66 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$4
finance 36% +$36
politics 26% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +18.8% +7.5% 100% 100% +7.5%
≤30d 1 +18.8% +7.5% 100% 100% +7.5%
≤90d 3 +9.1% -1.3% 100% 33% -1.2%
all 7 +10.8% +0.3% 86% 29% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 29% -3.1%
10% -9.3% 14% -12.3%
15% -18.1% 14% -20.8%
20% -26.1% 0% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×18.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×110.89 per $1 lost it wins $110.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage246d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $151 $151 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 22 $134 +$25 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 07 $129 +$7 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 03 $125 +$4 +3%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 13 $119 +$5 +4%
Netanyahu arrested by March 31? Dec 16 $139 −$1 -0%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 09 $46 +$20 +43%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 07 $209 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.66 · official $170.66 (match) · 205 history records