Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6e0e…229e sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,310 (-11%) realized −$1,310 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$564per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$318est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$448
7 days+$500
14 days−$381
30 days−$999
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$592
other 4% −$407
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +49.6% +35.3% 40% 40% -4.4%
≤30d 21 +35.6% +22.7% 38% 38% -17.2%
≤90d 21 +35.6% +22.7% 38% 38% -17.2%
all 21 +35.6% +22.7% 38% 38% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.7% 38% -17.2%
10% +10.9% 38% -25.1%
15% +0.2% 38% -32.3%
20% -9.6% 33% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$880) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late +53% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$470 vs −$366 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,310
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$318
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage22d
Avg bet$564
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $909 +$349 +38%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $258 +$465 +180%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Evans Jun 22 $502 −$315 -63%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $1,288 −$52 -4%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $296 +$995 +336%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $367 −$359 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $953 −$937 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $1,464 −$515 -35%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $601 −$112 -19%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $598 −$6 -1%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $151 +$522 +345%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $367 −$49 -13%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $436 +$678 +156%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $195 +$241 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $416 −$407 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $895 −$880 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $224 −$219 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $164 −$160 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $60 +$104 +172%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $1,483 −$751 -51%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $223 +$407 +182%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Raphael Collignon 73¢ $757 0m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Raphael Collignon 73¢ $491 0m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Raphael Collignon 73¢ $6 0m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Raphael Collignon 73¢ $4 0m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Raphael Collignon 52¢ $909 58m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane SELL Gabriel Diallo 100¢ $724 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Evans SELL Juan Carlos Prado 15¢ $187 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Evans BUY Juan Carlos Prado 39¢ $251 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Daniel Evans BUY Juan Carlos Prado 38¢ $251 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Gabriel Diallo 35¢ $258 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 45¢ $1,236 46h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 45¢ $1,288 2d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 82¢ $1,291 2d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 19¢ $194 2d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 17¢ $102 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 26¢ $367 2d
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 44¢ $953 5d
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo SELL Gabriel Diallo 19¢ $949 5d
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 28¢ $1,464 5d
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Aleksandar Kovacevic 26¢ $489 6d
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 31¢ $601 6d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 50¢ $589 6d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 47¢ $3 6d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 49¢ $598 6d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 99¢ $674 6d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 28¢ $318 6d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 18¢ $49 6d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 24¢ $102 6d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 21¢ $62 6d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 34¢ $304 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records