Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e0f…9304 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,233 (-23%) realized −$1,230 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$488per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$885
7 days−$885
14 days−$885
30 days−$931
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$1,366
sports 1% +$207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +16.3% +5.2% 25% 25% -79.2%
≤30d 6 +8.3% -2.0% 17% 17% -58.0%
≤90d 8 +7.6% -2.7% 25% 25% -35.9%
all 9 +9.9% -0.6% 33% 33% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 33% -35.7%
10% -10.1% 33% -41.8%
15% -18.8% 11% -47.5%
20% -26.7% 11% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$239 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$899
Realized−$1,230
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage220d
Avg bet$488
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $658 $688 +$30 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $243 $211 −$33 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $367 −$367 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $674 −$674 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $57 +$207 +365%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $185 −$14 -8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $402 −$32 -8%
Will Across win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Mar 31 $1,997 −$294 -15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $251 +$64 +26%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 25 $14 +$4 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $58 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $57 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $107 4h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $57 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $365 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $171 27d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $370 27d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 32d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $381 32d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 32d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 32d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 32d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 34d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $197 34d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $185 34d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 34d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 34d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 34d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $60 82d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $307 82d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? SELL Yes 15¢ $315 82d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 82d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $898.60 · official $898.60 (match) · 122 history records