Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e0f…9a05 weather 278 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$168 (+0%) realized +$86 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate38%105W / 173L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day47.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$251
14 days−$19
30 days+$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$41
weather 17% +$150
other 3% −$56
crypto 1% −$24
politics 1% $0
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +76.2% +59.4% 44% 35% -9.0%
≤30d 156 +28.0% +15.8% 38% 31% -9.1%
≤90d 278 +24.3% +12.5% 38% 30% -9.6%
all 278 +24.3% +12.5% 38% 30% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.5% 30% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here +1.7% 25% -18.2%
15% -8.1% 22% -26.1%
20% -17.1% 21% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$23 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses105 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)278 / 278
History coverage48d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 6? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on May 9? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 18? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 23? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 7? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 6? No 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? No 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on May 9? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 24? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 17? No 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 1? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 5? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 9? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 11? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 19°C on May 9? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 18°C on May 9? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $14 −$6 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$8 +131%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9,093 +$866 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $14,475 +$7 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $3,822 −$727 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4,707 −$135 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$74 +10550%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$17 +1700%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$50 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +654%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 +$50 +278%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $30 +$38 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -81%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $53 +$47 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $95 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $629 −$22 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $25 +$19 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $34 −$19 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $50 +$30 +61%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$50 +100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$49 +95%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $194 −$41 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $98 −$72 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $76 +$24 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $75 +$29 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $65 +$43 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $93 +$6 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 4m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $0 49m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 58m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL No 4¢ $1 59m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $930 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,900 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $153 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $762 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $878 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL No 60¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 8¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 12¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 12¢ $4 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $400 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $180 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $2 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $2 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $4 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 78¢ $35 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.91 · official $20.91 (match) · 2387 history records