Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6e10…8030 other 112 markets active 4d ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$14
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$9
politics 15% −$4
sports 6% −$27
world 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +6.5% -3.7% 19% 6% -8.7%
≤90d 89 +1.6% -8.0% 12% 7% -9.6%
all 110 +3.1% -6.7% 14% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 9% -9.6%
10% -15.6% 9% -18.3%
15% -23.8% 9% -26.2%
20% -31.3% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage100d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $61 $62 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $14 +$15 +105%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $382 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $67 $0 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 31 $381 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $390 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $173 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $465 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $173 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $185 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $182 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $173 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $734 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $352 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $330 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $381 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $303 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $190 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $186 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $189 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $185 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $345 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 10d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $37 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $61 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 11d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $120 13d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $37 16d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $37 17d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 18d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 19d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 19d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 25d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 25d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $31 26d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $31 26d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 27d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 27d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $27 29d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $27 29d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.58 · official $181.58 (match) · 351 history records