Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6E 0x6e14…3003 crypto 343 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,209 (-52%) realized −$19,234 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate14%96W / 596L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 135d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$3,597
other 9% −$3,867
world 1% +$655
politics 0% +$47
sports 0% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 363 -45.8% -51.0% 7% 7% -83.7%
≤30d 363 -45.8% -51.0% 7% 7% -83.7%
≤90d 653 -30.8% -37.4% 13% 13% -64.9%
all 692 -29.2% -35.9% 14% 13% -61.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.9% 13% -61.4%
10% ← realistic here -42.1% 13% -65.1%
15% -47.7% 12% -68.5%
20% -52.8% 12% -71.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$132 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$19,234
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses96 / 596
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)692 / 343
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$108
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 692 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 28¢ 90¢ $11 $36 +$25 (+221%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on May 2? Jun 29 $58 −$242 -420%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 18? Jun 29 $1,430 −$1,430 -100%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times April 4 - 11? Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 3-9? Jun 29 $100 −$1 -1%
Solana Up or Down - December 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on February 9? Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 29 $197 −$347 -176%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $200 and $210 on November 3? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BYU win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2100 and $2300 on May 16? Jun 29 $1,650 −$1,645 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on December 2? Jun 29 $115 −$41 -36%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 9PM ET Jun 29 $112 −$34 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 6PM ET Jun 29 $117 −$117 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 23? Jun 29 $1,307 −$1,307 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 9? Jun 29 $43 +$98 +229%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April? Jun 29 $99 −$99 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 23, 7PM ET Jun 29 $183 −$183 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 3? Jun 29 $239 −$239 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $236 −$306 -130%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in February? Jun 29 $90 −$90 -100%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 39-44m on opening weekend? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Jun 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on November 16? Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Solana dip to $120 November 17-23? Jun 29 $5 +$155 +3035%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 3 Jun 29 $46 −$101 -219%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on December 12? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 23, 8PM ET Jun 29 $106 −$106 -100%
54% tariff goes into effect on China by Wednesday? Jun 29 $730 −$735 -101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 13? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,600 on December 10? Jun 29 $59 −$59 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on December 18? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" this week? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,700 on December 11? Jun 29 $202 −$202 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 6, 7PM ET Jun 29 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in January? Jun 29 $343 −$22 -6%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on November 7? Jun 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,700 on November 24? Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 15? Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Trump visit Russia before July? Jun 29 $33 −$54 -164%
Solana Up or Down - November 16, 1PM ET Jun 29 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12PM ET Jun 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 23? Jun 29 $101 −$97 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.18 · official $36.18 (match) · 3500 history records