Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e16…6322 crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-5%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -9.0% -17.7% 46% 42% -29.0%
≤30d 24 -9.0% -17.7% 46% 42% -29.0%
≤90d 24 -9.0% -17.7% 46% 42% -29.0%
all 24 -9.0% -17.7% 46% 42% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 42% -29.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 42% -35.8%
15% -32.8% 42% -42.0%
20% -39.4% 42% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$26 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$8 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$31 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $19 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records