Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:46:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6E
0x6e18…b965
weather · 28 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$10 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$77
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses20 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage48d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 3 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 8? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 24? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on May 24? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 24 $30 +$44 +148%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $9 −$9 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 21 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8PM ET May 20 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 19 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on May May 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on May 14? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 18 $16 +$76 +465%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $32 −$31 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 10? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on May May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on May May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 5? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C or below on May 6? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 30 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 30 $24 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 50% $0
other 31% +$7
crypto 19% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $42 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $38 21d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $6 21d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 23d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 23d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 23d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 23d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $40 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 26d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on May BUY No 99¢ $7 31d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 31d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 32d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 32d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 32d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 32d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 32d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 32d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 32d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $33 32d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 32d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $29 32d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $14 34d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May BUY No 100¢ $18 38d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on May BUY No 100¢ $8 39d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C or below on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $23 39d
Will White House post 200+ posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 +35.3% +22.4% 83% 17% +20.0%
≤90d 25 +5.2% -4.8% 80% 8% -7.8%
all 25 +5.2% -4.8% 80% 8% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 8% -7.8%
10% -14.0% 8% -16.6%
15% -22.3% 8% -24.7%
20% -29.9% 8% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.87 · official $76.87 (match) · 55 history records