Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e1a…865f other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%35W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
other 37% $0
sports 16% −$7
politics 3% −$4
finance 1% −$21
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 28 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 39 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.0%
all 97 +0.5% -9.1% 36% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.9%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.5%
15% -25.7% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses35 / 62
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)97 / 100
History coverage486d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $138 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $15 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $140 −$3 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $153 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $87 −$3 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $304 −$5 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $197 +$2 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $379 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $146 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $161 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $76 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $307 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $223 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $83 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $147 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $161 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $71 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $92 −$21 -23%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $167 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $157 +$12 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $157 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $157 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $4 $0 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $160 −$4 -2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $246 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $141 −$5 -3%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $458 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $333 −$13 -4%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $1,068 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $1,068 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $543 +$2 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 22 $9 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 22 $1 $0 -5%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 21 $3 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 21 $9 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 21 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 21 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $79 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $36 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $117 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $21 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $138 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $138 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $140 45h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $84 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $70 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $144 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $19 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $75 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $54 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $152 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.22 · official $79.12 (match) · 364 history records