Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e1d…c3c9 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$2
other 32% +$2
tech 9% −$2
culture 8% $0
politics 6% −$1
finance 4% +$2
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -1.6% -11.0% 36% 7% -8.7%
≤90d 14 -1.6% -11.0% 36% 7% -8.7%
all 40 -3.0% -12.3% 42% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 2% -9.8%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage484d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $54 +$8 +14%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $11 −$3 -28%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $42 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $52 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $52 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $45 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $41 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 01 $13 −$1 -9%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 22 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 14 $62 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 13 $33 −$2 -6%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? Jun 08 $34 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $33 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 11 $33 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will another candidate win? May 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 08 $32 $0 +0%
Roma vs. FC Porto Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 16d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $44 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $44 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $16 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $25 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $14 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $7 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $7 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 21¢ $8 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $11 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.56 · official $39.56 (match) · 138 history records