Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6E 0x6e1e…bb68 sports 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,145 (-10%) realized −$19,445 · open +$1,300
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%62W / 52L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,610per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1,050est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6,300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,675
7 days+$6,929
14 days+$10,502
30 days−$3,863
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$17,574
other 0% +$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +33.8% +21.0% 75% 75% +21.5%
≤30d 10 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 50% -16.6%
≤90d 26 -12.5% -20.8% 46% 46% -24.8%
all 114 +4.7% -5.3% 54% 53% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 53% -18.9%
10% -14.3% 53% -26.7%
15% -22.6% 53% -33.8%
20% -30.2% 52% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$2,500) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,154 vs −$1,735 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$6,300
Realized−$19,445
Unrealized+$1,300
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses62 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,050
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage166d
Avg bet$1,610
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 63¢ $5,000 $6,300 +$1,300 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5,080 +$2,325 +46%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5,076 −$5,000 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5,063 +$3,576 +71%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5,082 +$6,029 +119%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5,081 −$5,000 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5,064 +$3,707 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5,075 +$4,865 +96%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 Jun 06 $4,406 −$4,365 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) Jun 06 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5) Jun 06 $5,071 −$5,000 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 11 $7,100 −$7,000 -99%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Apr 28 $2,500 +$2,150 +86%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 215.5 Apr 28 $2,500 +$2,330 +93%
Shiga Lakestars vs. Hiroshima Dragonflies Apr 22 $1,000 −$988 -99%
Spread: Hornets (-15.5) Apr 02 $3,000 +$2,621 +87%
Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5 Mar 30 $3,000 +$2,433 +81%
Spread: Celtics (-1.5) Mar 29 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-3.5) Mar 28 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Bulls vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5 Mar 28 $3,000 +$2,783 +93%
Spread: Rockets (-12.5) Mar 27 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5 Mar 27 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-13.5) Mar 26 $3,000 +$2,393 +80%
Spread: Warriors (-11.5) Mar 26 $9,000 −$3,086 -34%
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 235.5 Mar 25 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 234.5 Mar 25 $5,514 −$5,514 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-19.5) Mar 24 $3,000 +$2,578 +86%
Spread: Kings (-4.5) Mar 22 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5 Mar 22 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Thunder vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5 Mar 22 $2,500 +$1,964 +79%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5 Mar 21 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5) Mar 21 $1,500 +$1,301 +87%
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5) Mar 21 $2,000 +$2,016 +101%
Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5 Mar 21 $3,000 +$2,658 +89%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5 Mar 20 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5) Mar 19 $2,000 +$1,914 +96%
Clippers vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5 Mar 19 $2,000 +$1,967 +98%
Trail Blazers vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5 Mar 18 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-15.5) Mar 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Mar 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5 Mar 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors: O/U 222.5 Mar 16 $1,000 +$923 +92%
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5) Mar 14 $1,000 +$900 +90%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) Mar 13 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 217.5 Mar 11 $1,000 +$963 +96%
Spread: Kings (-4.5) Mar 10 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers: O/U 229.5 Mar 10 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Pelicans (-9.5) Mar 09 $1,000 +$917 +92%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Mar 09 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
Suns vs. Kings: O/U 222.5 Mar 03 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-3.5) Mar 02 $1,000 +$923 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $5,075 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 41¢ $2,190 34h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $5,076 35h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $5,080 35h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $5,063 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $5,081 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $5,082 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $5,064 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $5,075 9d
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 86¢ $2,008 14d
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,398 14d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) BUY Washington Mystics 50¢ $5,075 14d
Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5) BUY Indiana Fever 53¢ $5,071 14d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 BUY Under 53¢ $7,100 40d
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,500 54d
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,500 54d
Shiga Lakestars vs. Hiroshima Dragonflies BUY Shiga Lakestars 59¢ $1,000 59d
Spread: Hornets (-15.5) BUY Hornets 53¢ $3,000 81d
Spread: Celtics (-1.5) BUY Hornets 55¢ $3,000 83d
Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3,000 83d
Spread: Bulls (-3.5) BUY Bulls 53¢ $3,000 84d
Spread: Rockets (-12.5) BUY Rockets 53¢ $3,000 85d
Bulls vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3,000 85d
Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3,000 85d
Spread: Warriors (-11.5) BUY Warriors 55¢ $6,000 87d
Spread: Warriors (-11.5) BUY Nets 51¢ $3,000 87d
Spread: Nuggets (-13.5) BUY Mavericks 56¢ $3,000 87d
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 235.5 BUY Under 78¢ $3,000 88d
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 234.5 BUY Under 81¢ $3,000 88d
Nuggets vs. Suns: O/U 234.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2,514 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,300.00 · official $7,400.00 · 208 history records