Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6E 0x6e21…f009 weather 268 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+11%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%55W / 211L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$41
14 days+$15
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% +$53
crypto 8% −$5
other 2% −$2
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +250.9% +217.5% 47% 47% +118.7%
≤30d 142 +20.1% +8.6% 18% 18% +15.7%
≤90d 266 +5.6% -4.4% 21% 20% -1.7%
all 266 +5.6% -4.4% 21% 20% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 20% -1.7%
10% -13.6% 19% -11.1%
15% -21.9% 17% -19.7%
20% -29.6% 16% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses55 / 211
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)266 / 268
History coverage59d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 22¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +328%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +236%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$10 +315%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$5 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -51%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? Jun 11 $3 +$6 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +207%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 11 $3 +$8 +251%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 11 $4 +$9 +255%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 07 $3 −$2 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 1? Jun 04 $4 −$2 -43%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 04 $1 +$1 +233%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 02 $1 $0 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 +$3 +385%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 1? Jun 01 $5 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 2? Jun 01 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 3? Jun 01 $4 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 3? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju May 31 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju May 31 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 1? May 31 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 31? May 31 $2 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 31 $4 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 2? May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 2? May 31 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju May 31 $3 −$2 -86%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju May 31 $3 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 31 $5 −$3 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? SELL Yes 93¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 33h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 6¢ $0 42h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 9¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 10? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 10? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.59 · official $0.00 (match) · 485 history records