Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e25…8a63 sports 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$2
politics 25% −$1
other 20% −$2
economics 9% −$1
crypto 6% −$8
culture 5% $0
tech 5% −$1
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 137 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 122
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage156d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $135 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $208 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 17 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 17 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 17 $128 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 10 $124 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 10 $4 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 10 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $39 11d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $39 11d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $41 25d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $41 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 96¢ $32 32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $33 33d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $43 117d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $43 117d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 119d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 119d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $43 119d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $43 119d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $39 119d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $39 119d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $46 119d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $46 119d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $44 119d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 119d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $42 119d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $42 119d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $46 119d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $46 119d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $44 119d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $44 119d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $41 119d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $41 119d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $45 119d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $45 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.33 · official $33.31 (match) · 532 history records