Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6e2b…2372 sports 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+6%) realized +$86 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%92W / 93L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days+$1
14 days+$25
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$74
other 16% −$19
crypto 1% −$1
weather 0% +$1
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -5.1% -14.2% 47% 47% -9.2%
≤30d 98 +11.9% +1.3% 54% 54% -5.4%
≤90d 185 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 47% -5.1%
all 185 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 47% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 47% -5.1%
10% -17.6% 46% -14.2%
15% -25.6% 44% -22.4%
20% -32.9% 38% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses92 / 93
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)185 / 189
History coverage53d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 32¢ 20¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$11 +118%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $29 −$29 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$4 +82%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$33 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $19 +$18 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 +$9 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 +$19 +91%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +89%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 +$5 +79%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $6 +$5 +84%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 +$11 +91%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$5 +109%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$3 +212%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2 +$3 +116%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $13 +$12 +91%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 +$8 +388%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $2 +$1 +35%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +126%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $6 +$5 +88%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +94%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $3 +$3 +103%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $11 +$5 +47%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $5 +$7 +144%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 +$5 +101%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $16 −$16 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $5 +$5 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Moldova vs. Bulgaria: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $1 +$1 +90%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $9 −$9 -98%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 19h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 27¢ $5 20h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $6 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 32h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $31 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $29 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $8 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $62 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $7 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $19 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $8 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $9 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- BUY 13¢ $2 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $41 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $5 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $21 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 35¢ $1 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY 14¢ $1 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.33 · official $19.33 (match) · 324 history records