trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -5.1% | -14.1% | 60% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -9.4% | -18.1% | 56% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -9.4% | -18.1% | 56% | 0% | -10.4% |
| all | 25 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 68% | 8% | -6.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.9% | 8% | -6.9% |
| 10% | -16.7% | 4% | -15.9% |
| 15% | -24.7% | 4% | -24.0% |
| 20% | -32.1% | 4% | -31.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | $37 | $38 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $36 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 16 | $63 | $0 | +0% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 15 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $38 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $4 | −$1 | -23% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 09 | $1 | $0 | -36% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $19 | $0 | +2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 08 | $1 | $0 | -33% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 07 | $3 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? | Dec 23 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? | May 11 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 24 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on March 31? | Mar 30 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? | Mar 29 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims? | Mar 28 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on March 26? | Mar 28 | $21 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Dillon Danis win the match? | Mar 26 | $21 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 25 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Canada election called by Sunday? | Mar 25 | $19 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 25 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Robert Morris vs. Alabama | Mar 22 | $19 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or | Mar 20 | $17 | +$3 | +18% |
| Evansville vs. Indiana State | Mar 03 | $8 | +$8 | +100% |