Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6E 0x6e2e…d8a9 weather 352 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,153 (+3%) realized +$1,040 · open +$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate82%285W / 64L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$735now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$661
7 days−$176
14 days+$434
30 days+$821
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$1,450
other 1% −$460
crypto 0% −$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -1.3% -10.7% 92% 8% -11.0%
≤30d 120 +11.6% +1.0% 95% 17% -6.8%
≤90d 349 +4.9% -5.1% 82% 32% -7.1%
all 349 +4.9% -5.1% 82% 32% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 32% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 16% -16.0%
15% -22.5% 9% -24.1%
20% -30.1% 6% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$29 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$735
Realized+$1,040
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses285 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)349 / 352
History coverage67d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? No 77¢ 100¢ $359 $464 +$104 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $210 $219 +$9 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? No 50¢ 50¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $202 +$18 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $397 +$35 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $461 −$459 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $261 −$259 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $234 +$16 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $316 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $489 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $499 +$19 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $104 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $343 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $241 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $483 +$70 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $169 +$16 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $376 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $432 +$48 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $483 +$27 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $235 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 13? Jun 12 $698 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $74 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $226 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $357 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $274 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $678 +$76 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $204 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $425 +$23 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $228 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $607 +$29 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 10 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $464 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 10 $103 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $507 +$37 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $180 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $385 +$19 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $293 +$16 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $173 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $222 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $414 +$31 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $569 +$58 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $268 +$17 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $336 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $172 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $392 +$19 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$3 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $326 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $205 +$16 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $25 8m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $20 8m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $55 9m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 57¢ $36 11m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $112 13m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 13m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 14m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $70 14m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $20 15m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $30 18m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 18m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $75 18m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 43¢ $9 19m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 40¢ $4 20m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 34¢ $5 21m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 22m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $3 43m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $100 48m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $9 48m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $120 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $19 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $18 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $27 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $205 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $102 21h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $158 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $734.80 · official $730.69 (match) · 2093 history records