Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e30…157f crypto 435 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$3,587 (-23%) realized −$6,774 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%249W / 235L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day371.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,024
7 days−$7,949
14 days−$6,774
30 days−$6,774
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 483 -16.1% -24.1% 51% 44% -43.3%
≤30d 484 -12.0% -20.4% 51% 44% -41.6%
≤90d 484 -12.0% -20.4% 51% 44% -41.6%
all 484 -12.0% -20.4% 51% 44% -41.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover371.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 44% -41.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 35% -47.2%
15% -34.9% 26% -52.3%
20% -41.3% 21% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$42 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$6,774
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses249 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)484 / 435
History coverage9d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day371.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 484 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 95¢ 100¢ $36 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $208 $0 −$208 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $341 $0 −$341 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $223 $0 −$223 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $235 $0 −$235 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $341 −$341 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $223 −$223 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $235 −$235 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $253 −$253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $408 −$408 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $227 −$227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $330 −$330 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $276 −$276 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $242 −$242 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $227 −$227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.44 · official $36.31 · 3500 history records