Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6E 0x6e31…0e6e sports 1631 markets active 5h ago coverage 38d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,019 (+1%) realized +$1,023 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate75%1223W / 407L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day44.9pace
Fees−$947est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,515
7 days−$3,027
14 days−$2,174
30 days−$680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$366
finance 5% +$41
other 4% −$22
tech 1% +$172
weather 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 -8.0% -16.8% 68% 68% -17.0%
≤30d 1146 +0.9% -8.7% 75% 72% -10.1%
≤90d 1630 +1.3% -8.3% 75% 73% -9.6%
all 1630 +1.3% -8.3% 75% 73% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 73% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 72% -18.3%
15% -25.1% 40% -26.2%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$82 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized+$1,023
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1223 / 407
Est. fees paid−$947
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1630 / 1631
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$81
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1630 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm New York Liberty 78¢ 76¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 25 $202 +$66 +33%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $202 +$68 +34%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu Jun 25 $202 +$65 +32%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $201 +$56 +28%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag Jun 25 $202 +$76 +38%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh Jun 25 $202 +$76 +38%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $201 +$65 +32%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 25 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 25 $202 −$63 -31%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $202 +$72 +36%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B Jun 25 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $201 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $202 +$73 +36%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $202 +$76 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $202 −$202 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 25 $202 +$66 +33%
Valorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 25 $202 +$68 +34%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 25 $201 +$55 +27%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Jun 25 $202 +$69 +34%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $201 −$201 -100%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $201 −$201 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $202 −$202 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $202 −$202 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $202 −$202 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $202 +$76 +37%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $201 +$65 +32%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $202 +$75 +37%
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D Jun 24 $202 +$75 +37%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $202 +$76 +38%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $201 +$55 +27%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Joblife (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Grou Jun 24 $201 +$61 +30%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $201 +$65 +32%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $201 +$65 +32%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $201 +$62 +31%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $201 +$58 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Infinite 75¢ $202 5h
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 71¢ $202 5h
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY FOKUS 75¢ $202 5h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 78¢ $201 6h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 78¢ $201 6h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh BUY UNO MILLE 72¢ $202 7h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 73¢ $202 7h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY Beşiktaş Esports 72¢ $202 7h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 74¢ $202 8h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 76¢ $201 8h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $202 9h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 77¢ $202 10h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY largadosypelados 71¢ $202 11h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 75¢ $201 11h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (B BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 71¢ $202 12h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 70¢ $202 13h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY TEAM VISION 71¢ $202 13h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 72¢ $202 14h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Sashi Esport 73¢ $202 15h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 71¢ $202 15h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam BUY Rune Eaters 73¢ $202 17h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W BUY largadosypelados 71¢ $202 18h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 71¢ $202 20h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 77¢ $202 24h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Division One 75¢ $202 24h
Valorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta BUY Pigeons 74¢ $202 25h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 73¢ $202 25h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 75¢ $201 28h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 78¢ $201 28h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner BUY GamerLegion 77¢ $201 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.14 · official $333.14 (match) · 3500 history records