Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:12:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6E
0x6e35…ddce
weather · 997 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$145 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$107 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized+$107
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses972 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)996 / 997
History coverage72d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 996 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? No 68¢ 34¢ $45 $22 −$23 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 29? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 28? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 5? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 7? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 11? May 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? May 11 $8 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6? May 07 $27 +$18 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 7? May 06 $25 −$24 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 5? May 05 $24 −$24 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 1? May 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April Apr 29 $82 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 28? Apr 29 $44 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 29? Apr 28 $9 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 28? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 28? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 28? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 28? Apr 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 28? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on April 28? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 28? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on April 28? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 28? Apr 28 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on April 28? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 27? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or higher on Apri Apr 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 28? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 27? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 28? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 27? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 27? Apr 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on April 27? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 27? Apr 28 $19 +$26 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 27? Apr 28 $43 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 27? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 27? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 27? Apr 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 27 Apr 27 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 27 Apr 27 $125 +$12 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 27? Apr 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 27? Apr 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 27 Apr 27 $648 +$29 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 27? Apr 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 27 Apr 27 $159 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 27? Apr 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 27? Apr 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on April 27? Apr 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 27? Apr 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 27? Apr 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Apr 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 27? Apr 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 27? Apr 27 $22 +$12 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on April 27? Apr 27 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $45 42h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 11? SELL Yes 52¢ $0 34d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 11? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 34d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 34d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 34d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 34d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 34d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 34d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 11? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 34d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 11? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 34d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 7? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 38d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 7? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 38d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 7? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 38d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 7? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 38d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 7? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 38d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 38d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6? BUY Yes 61¢ $9 38d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 38d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 5? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 40d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 5? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 40d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 5? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 40d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 1? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 43d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 45d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤30d 1 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤90d 996 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 3% -9.4%
all 996 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 3% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.11 · official $22.11 (match) · 3158 history records