Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
6E 0x6e3a…5f61 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$27,635 (+29%) realized +$27,847 · open −$212
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$11,982per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$32,078now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$19,837
world 9% +$6,972
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +29.1% +16.8% 83% 83% +31.0%
≤30d 6 +29.1% +16.8% 83% 83% +31.0%
≤90d 6 +29.1% +16.8% 83% 83% +31.0%
all 6 +29.1% +16.8% 83% 83% +31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.8% 83% +31.0%
10% ← realistic here +5.6% 83% +18.5%
15% -4.6% 67% +7.0%
20% -13.9% 17% -3.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5,712 vs −$1,539 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.56 per $1 lost it wins $18.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$32,078
Realized+$27,847
Unrealized−$212
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11,982
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $32,290 $32,078 −$212 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22,972 +$9,553 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15,794 +$7,188 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10,954 +$4,848 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1,539 −$1,539 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5,081 +$5,850 +115%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3,997 +$1,122 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $32,523 53m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $22,972 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $22,981 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $15,794 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $15,802 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10,954 31h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $514 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $425 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $664 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,386 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $709 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $445 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $524 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $594 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $574 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,223 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $574 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $649 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $649 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 100¢ $500 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 46¢ $5,081 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? SELL No 99¢ $5,119 32h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 77¢ $3,997 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 39¢ $2,995 35h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,539 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,078.00 · official $35,019.01 · 28 history records