Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e3d…4b23 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-22%) realized −$56 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$60
other 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-44.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -39.1% -44.9% 33% 33% -44.4%
≤30d 3 -39.1% -44.9% 33% 33% -44.4%
≤90d 3 -39.1% -44.9% 33% 33% -44.4%
all 3 -39.1% -44.9% 33% 33% -44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.9% 33% -44.4%
10% -50.2% 33% -49.7%
15% -55.0% 33% -54.6%
20% -59.4% 33% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$50 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 52¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $30 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $51 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.13 · official $108.13 (match) · 7 history records