Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e3e…3252 politics 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$214 (-10%) realized −$195 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%10W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$149
sports 12% −$37
politics 11% −$55
crypto 3% −$2
world 3% −$3
tech 3% $0
finance 2% −$3
culture 2% +$37
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +100.6% +81.5% 50% 25% +18.0%
≤30d 4 +100.6% +81.5% 50% 25% +18.0%
≤90d 15 +12.3% +1.6% 33% 7% +7.1%
all 52 -6.1% -15.1% 19% 10% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 10% -19.7%
10% -23.2% 8% -27.4%
15% -30.6% 6% -34.4%
20% -37.4% 4% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$195
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses10 / 42
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)52 / 56
History coverage133d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026? No 65¢ 48¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$122 +596%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $102 +$6 +6%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Apr 06 $3 $0 +0%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Apr 06 $2 $0 +8%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Apr 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 06 $3 $0 -2%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? Apr 06 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $10 $0 -4%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 31 $2 $0 +9%
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 28 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
No one announced as next James Bond? Mar 16 $189 −$6 -3%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Mar 16 $112 −$6 -5%
Will USD/CAD hit 1.25 (Low) in 2026? Mar 16 $28 −$17 -62%
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $2B? Mar 16 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Sean Strickland become UFC champion in 2026? Mar 16 $114 −$89 -78%
Will Mark Baisley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado? Mar 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appro Mar 16 $101 −$79 -78%
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Aw Mar 16 $13 +$6 +43%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Mar 16 $51 −$21 -42%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Mar 16 $12 −$2 -13%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Mar 16 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1? Mar 16 $47 −$3 -6%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Mar 15 $105 +$24 +23%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Mar 15 $147 −$3 -2%
Will the Charlotte Hornets make the NBA Playoffs? Mar 15 $3 $0 -9%
Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Mar 15 $11 $0 -4%
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Mar 15 $16 −$4 -22%
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01? Mar 15 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Mar 15 $26 −$2 -8%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 15 $47 −$11 -22%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 15 $48 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Mar 15 $190 −$35 -18%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 07 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 05 $3 −$1 -46%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 04 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas S Mar 03 $5 −$3 -69%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 03 $16 −$10 -61%
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? Mar 03 $9 −$1 -10%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Mar 03 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 28 $3 $0 -5%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 28 $3 $0 -6%
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m? Feb 28 $19 +$31 +163%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 27 $15 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $109 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 3d
Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026? BUY No 65¢ $102 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 8d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $3 79d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL No 41¢ $2 79d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 47¢ $3 79d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $3 79d
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? SELL No 46¢ $3 79d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 80¢ $11 79d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 61¢ $9 79d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 35¢ $2 86d
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 87d
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 87d
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 87d
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 87d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 63¢ $6 87d
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 80¢ $6 87d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 88d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $3 88d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $3 88d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY No 38¢ $2 88d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? BUY No 47¢ $3 88d
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? BUY No 47¢ $3 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.31 · official $281.31 (match) · 236 history records