Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6E 0x6e3f…98be other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,258 (+47%) realized +$2,336 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$485per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$1,019now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$2,240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$2,186
other 37% +$100
crypto 3% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.0% -13.1% 40% 40% -3.6%
≤30d 7 +9.8% -0.7% 57% 57% +44.4%
≤90d 7 +9.8% -0.7% 57% 57% +44.4%
all 7 +9.8% -0.7% 57% 57% +44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 57% +44.4%
10% -10.2% 43% +30.6%
15% -18.8% 43% +18.0%
20% -26.8% 43% +6.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$651 vs −$122 · ×5.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.14 per $1 lost it wins $7.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$1,019
Realized+$2,336
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage48d
Avg bet$485
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $497 $586 +$89 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $500 $433 −$67 (-13%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $100 −$40 -40%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 25 $182 +$218 +120%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $200 +$200 +100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $125 −$125 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2,947 +$2,186 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals SELL Yes 23¢ $60 1h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $100 5h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $81 24h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $4 25h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $15 25h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $64 25h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $13 28h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $1 42h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $4 47h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $200 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $106 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $21 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $58 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $15 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $13 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $86 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $497 20d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $44 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $64 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $194 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,018.85 · official $1,018.85 (match) · 77 history records