Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:08:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6E 0x6e43…40b1 crypto 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$73 (-1%) realized −$22 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%23W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$504
7 days−$498
14 days−$812
30 days−$1,037
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$1,156
other 7% −$340
tech 6% +$426
sports 3% −$17
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -23.8% -31.0% 26% 23% -21.0%
≤30d 65 -12.9% -21.2% 35% 31% -27.0%
≤90d 65 -12.9% -21.2% 35% 31% -27.0%
all 65 -12.9% -21.2% 35% 31% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 31% -27.0%
10% -28.7% 25% -34.0%
15% -35.6% 18% -40.3%
20% -41.9% 15% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$49 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses23 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)65 / 72
History coverage15d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 46¢ 100¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+117%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-97%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 30 $36 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 30 $57 −$22 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 30 $77 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 30 $114 −$55 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 30 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 30 $108 −$14 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 30 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 30 $208 −$82 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 30 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 30 $454 −$179 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 30 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 30 $553 −$66 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 30 $127 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 30 $550 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 30 $231 +$197 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 30 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 30 $108 −$54 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 30 $237 −$37 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 30 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 30 $336 −$30 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 30 $511 −$100 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $207 −$107 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $101 +$22 +22%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 29 $377 +$437 +116%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $1 +$4 +413%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 +$9 +291%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $97 −$75 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $75 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $182 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $128 +$50 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$82 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $36 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $77 −$77 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 49m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 49m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 50m
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 50m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.21 · official $22.21 (match) · 275 history records