Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e44…57d3 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$1
other 23% $0
politics 11% −$1
crypto 7% +$1
economics 6% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 31% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 31% 0% -9.6%
all 49 -2.5% -11.7% 41% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 2% -9.8%
10% -20.2% 2% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage398d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $76 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $8 $0 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $38 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $36 −$2 -5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $39 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $79 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $6 −$2 -28%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 +33%
Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 13–20? Jun 19 $8 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $14 $0 -2%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 15 $17 $0 -1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -43%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 11 $19 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Jun 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $2 $0 -20%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 25 $26 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 24 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 43m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $17 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $11 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $6 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $24 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $9 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $9 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $27 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $27 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $19 9d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $18 9d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $36 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $40 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $40 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $20 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $16 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $36 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $5 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $5 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $40 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 169 history records