Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e46…7d1f other 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$505 (-9%) realized −$501 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$104
14 days−$145
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$163
world 23% −$146
sports 17% −$115
politics 7% +$63
tech 2% −$125
economics 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +27.0% +14.9% 50% 50% +10.6%
≤30d 15 +4.7% -5.3% 47% 33% -22.4%
≤90d 60 -22.5% -29.9% 37% 32% -19.6%
all 68 -21.6% -29.1% 37% 32% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 32% -18.6%
10% -35.9% 29% -26.4%
15% -42.1% 25% -33.5%
20% -47.8% 15% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$35 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized−$501
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 43
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions8
Markets (closed)68 / 77
History coverage274d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 64¢ 63¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 +$28 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$15 -30%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$89 +436%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $75 +$5 +7%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $254 −$250 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $152 +$6 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $100 −$11 -11%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $151 +$57 +38%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $51 +$45 +89%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 15 $25 −$14 -54%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 +$65 +64%
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? May 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $50 −$41 -82%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 07 $165 +$73 +44%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $51 +$30 +60%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $50 +$23 +45%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Apr 30 $100 −$100 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? Apr 30 $51 −$50 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing Apr 28 $150 +$20 +14%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $100 +$95 +95%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 +$26 +52%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 22 $25 −$25 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs New Zealand Apr 22 $65 −$65 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Apr 22 $59 +$4 +8%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Apr 22 $125 −$125 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Loyal raise on MetaDAO? Apr 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 22 $50 +$30 +59%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 18 $100 +$30 +30%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 14 $200 −$37 -18%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 14 $50 −$44 -88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 13 $100 −$31 -31%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $50 −$10 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $84 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 13h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-27 BUY 67¢ $50 25h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 25h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $35 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 48¢ $35 33h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 33h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $80 7d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No $5 11d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $26 11d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $25 12d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $102 13d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $101 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $85 19d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.25 · official $391.25 · 187 history records