Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:01:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e46…42df sports 638 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%312W / 323L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day51.5pace
Fees−$469est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$161
14 days+$192
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$503
other 13% −$19
world 1% +$156
crypto 0% +$25
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +12.3% +1.6% 60% 50% -1.6%
≤30d 176 +4.2% -5.8% 54% 51% -8.1%
≤90d 635 -1.8% -11.2% 49% 45% -10.5%
all 635 -1.8% -11.2% 49% 45% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 45% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 42% -19.0%
15% -27.4% 38% -26.9%
20% -34.5% 34% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$51 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses312 / 323
Est. fees paid−$469
Open positions3
Markets (closed)635 / 638
History coverage49d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day51.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 635 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 54¢ $80 $98 +$18 (+23%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Over 51¢ 46¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-9%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 299 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $81 −$32 -39%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $60 −$58 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $8 +$40 +510%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $118 +$37 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $54 +$27 +50%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$30 +38%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $65 +$54 +83%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $81 +$114 +140%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $82 −$80 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $81 +$52 +65%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $34 −$34 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $65 −$64 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$22 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $96 +$3 +3%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $15 +$4 +27%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $79 −$78 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $7 +$7 +105%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $28 −$27 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $110 +$41 +37%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $66 +$72 +109%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $81 +$119 +146%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$43 +53%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $115 $0 +0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $71 +$54 +76%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 +$3 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 +$18 +307%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $33 +$10 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $62 +$103 +165%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $14 +$14 +101%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $5 +$2 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $2 +$2 +93%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $82 −$80 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $56 +$140 +250%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $25 +$31 +124%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $20 −$19 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $81 −$80 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $27 +$29 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $81 +$70 +86%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $19 +$7 +37%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $34 +$70 +206%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Ion Cutelaba 23¢ $7 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 24¢ $49 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 76¢ $33 1h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Melsik Baghdasaryan 20¢ $6 2h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Melsik Baghdasaryan 20¢ $32 2h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Melsik Baghdasaryan 20¢ $22 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 16¢ $8 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $82 5h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 66¢ $54 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $37 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $35 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $32 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $29 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 10h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $31 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $6 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $11 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $35 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $19 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.65 · official $169.65 (match) · 2827 history records