Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6e47…bfd5 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+3%) realized +$28 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$127
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$213
other 35% +$96
crypto 9% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -33.5% -39.8% 40% 40% -31.5%
≤30d 5 -33.5% -39.8% 40% 40% -31.5%
≤90d 5 -33.5% -39.8% 40% 40% -31.5%
all 32 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 44% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 44% -12.3%
10% -25.3% 44% -20.7%
15% -32.5% 44% -28.4%
20% -39.2% 38% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$29 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage160d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa Gimnasia 51¢ 55¢ $98 $105 +$7 (+7%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 46¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $77 −$76 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $119 +$57 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $90 −$79 -88%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $121 +$88 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $120 −$117 -98%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $44 −$8 -18%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $20 +$24 +122%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Jan 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Clippers vs. Raptors Jan 17 $28 +$32 +112%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-16? Jan 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Kings Jan 15 $5 +$4 +69%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-15? Jan 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Knicks vs. Kings Jan 15 $25 +$10 +41%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5 Jan 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Jazz vs. Bulls Jan 15 $59 +$32 +54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $18 +$43 +238%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $22 +$18 +81%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-14? Jan 14 $35 +$23 +67%
Hornets vs. Clippers Jan 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $13 +$9 +69%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club end in a draw? Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs 777 (BO3) Jan 12 $15 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner Jan 12 $32 +$33 +104%
Blue Jackets vs. Utah Jan 12 $13 +$19 +144%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 12 $84 +$91 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Gimnasia vs. Quimsa BUY Gimnasia 51¢ $99 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 52¢ $77 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over $11 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $119 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $90 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $121 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $100 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $20 25h
Bills vs. Broncos SELL Bills 38¢ $36 153d
Bills vs. Broncos BUY Bills 46¢ $44 154d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 154d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 154d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 154d
Timberwolves vs. Rockets BUY Timberwolves 61¢ $31 154d
Clippers vs. Raptors SELL Clippers 100¢ $61 154d
Clippers vs. Raptors BUY Clippers 47¢ $28 154d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 156d
Golden Knights vs. Kings SELL Kings 49¢ $9 156d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $46 156d
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 156d
Knicks vs. Kings SELL Kings 96¢ $35 156d
Golden Knights vs. Kings BUY Kings 29¢ $5 156d
Knicks vs. Kings BUY Kings 68¢ $25 156d
Nuggets vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5 BUY Under 70¢ $25 156d
Jazz vs. Bulls SELL Bulls 100¢ $91 156d
Jazz vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 65¢ $59 157d
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-14? BUY Yes $1 157d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14? BUY Yes $1 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.72 · official $126.26 · 54 history records