Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e49…f1af world 178 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (437 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28,601 (-40%) realized −$27,759 · open −$842
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%105W / 232L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day436.7pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,996now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$781
sports 10% +$1,117
crypto 9% +$465
politics 6% −$496
other 4% −$432
finance 3% −$265
tech 3% +$617
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (437 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 330 +22.7% +11.0% 31% 25% -12.8%
≤30d 337 +29.5% +17.2% 31% 25% -12.9%
≤90d 337 +29.5% +17.2% 31% 25% -12.9%
all 337 +29.5% +17.2% 31% 25% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover436.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.2% 25% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here +6.0% 20% -21.2%
15% -4.3% 16% -28.8%
20% -13.6% 15% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$46 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2,996
Realized−$27,759
Unrealized−$842
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses105 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions39
Markets (closed)337 / 178
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$400
Trades / day436.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 31¢ $705 $500 −$205 (-29%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 78¢ 86¢ $320 $351 +$31 (+10%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 11¢ $529 $313 −$215 (-41%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 55¢ 71¢ $242 $313 +$71 (+30%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $350 $206 −$144 (-41%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $128 $158 +$30 (+23%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $118 $157 +$39 (+33%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $117 $156 +$39 (+33%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 56¢ 56¢ $143 $143 −$0 (-0%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 10¢ 30¢ $31 $94 +$62 (+198%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 49¢ 52¢ $56 $60 +$4 (+8%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $26 $50 +$24 (+89%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 26¢ 22¢ $57 $47 −$9 (-17%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 77¢ 86¢ $38 $43 +$5 (+13%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $246 $42 −$204 (-83%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 84¢ 78¢ $38 $36 −$3 (-7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 43¢ 13¢ $98 $29 −$70 (-71%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 49¢ 90¢ $13 $23 +$10 (+82%)
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? No 86¢ 85¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? No 35¢ 18¢ $40 $21 −$20 (-49%)
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Yes 16¢ 13¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-19%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $34 $18 −$16 (-46%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 22¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 68¢ 3¢ $409 $17 −$392 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 241 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11AM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +464%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 30? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$101 -142%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 17 $0 +$321 +287480%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 17 $6 +$55 +950%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 17 $31 +$19 +62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 17 $17 −$7 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 5? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? Jun 17 $2 +$8 +435%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$8 -132%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? Jun 17 $12 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? Jun 17 $203 −$231 -114%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election in the firs Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +30%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 17 $82 −$88 -108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 28? Jun 17 $3 −$28 -902%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? Jun 17 $11 −$17 -148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -110%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on June 7? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 31? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of May 25 2026? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$2 -41%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 17 $5 −$32 -682%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -191%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 23? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 17 $2 +$115 +6708%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 17 $5 −$12 -251%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? Jun 17 $17 −$16 -95%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 17 $7 −$9 -133%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13? Jun 17 $14 −$20 -143%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 15? Jun 17 $11 −$67 -597%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 0m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 0m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 24¢ $24 2m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 16¢ $2 2m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 4m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 18¢ $5 5m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 82¢ $28 7m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $447 7m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 82¢ $38 7m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 81¢ $87 8m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 82¢ $259 8m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 83¢ $30 8m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 43¢ $98 10m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 87¢ $1 14m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 87¢ $6 14m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 87¢ $0 14m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 87¢ $101 14m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 88¢ $7 14m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 86¢ $24 18m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 86¢ $17 18m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 86¢ $12 18m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 86¢ $6 19m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? SELL Yes 27¢ $50 20m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $8 22m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 76¢ $76 23m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 77¢ $77 23m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 77¢ $77 23m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 77¢ $70 23m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 77¢ $7 23m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 77¢ $53 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,996.37 · official $3,019.07 (match) · 3500 history records