Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6e49…54f6 other 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$58 (+14%) realized +$61 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%17W / 33L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$9
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$90
other 34% −$1
sports 9% −$8
crypto 3% −$6
weather 2% +$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +17.5% +6.3% 25% 25% -5.3%
≤30d 50 +26.3% +14.3% 34% 30% +7.3%
≤90d 50 +26.3% +14.3% 34% 30% +7.3%
all 50 +26.3% +14.3% 34% 30% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 30% +7.3%
10% +3.3% 30% -3.0%
15% -6.6% 26% -12.4%
20% -15.8% 24% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.85 per $1 lost it wins $2.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses17 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)50 / 75
History coverage30d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will England win? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? Yes 11¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+124%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +320%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +526%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $101 −$1 -1%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $1 $0 +33%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $1 +$2 +165%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 +$2 +197%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 +$2 +199%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 06 $100 +$8 +8%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1 +$1 +83%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Cameroon vs Mali May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J May 28 $2 +$1 +50%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 27? May 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 27? May 27 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 26? May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $2 +$85 +4253%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$3 +298%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $2 −$2 -77%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $2 +$2 +114%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 19? May 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $7 −$5 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 21m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $0 16h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 66¢ $4 19h
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $10 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 10¢ $5 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 11¢ $5 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 12¢ $1 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 24¢ $1 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes $1 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes $1 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 46¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 4d
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 75¢ $42 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 80¢ $40 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 63¢ $1 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $100 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 46¢ $1 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $3 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 37¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.60 · official $128.63 (match) · 130 history records