Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e4b…faf0 politics 109 markets active 2d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$4
politics 41% −$5
sports 7% −$33
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -2.9% -12.1% 5% 4% -9.9%
all 108 -2.7% -12.0% 8% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 4% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 3% -18.5%
15% -28.1% 3% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 99
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage109d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $305 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $281 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $92 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $250 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $265 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $87 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $161 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $248 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $80 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $68 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $72 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $146 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $75 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $167 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $94 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $85 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $85 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $87 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 29 $78 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $78 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $163 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $88 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $69 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 17 $98 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 3d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 8d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 9d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 10d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 10d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $13 10d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $13 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 18d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $76 18d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $76 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $81 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $81 23d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $78 24d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 24d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $87 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.01 · official $16.01 (match) · 310 history records