Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6e4e…4f43 sports 794 markets active 2h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,075 (+1%) realized +$5,080 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate54%416W / 352L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$485per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$182est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$2,967now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$541
14 days−$555
30 days−$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$3,348
other 14% +$687
crypto 0% −$85
politics 0% +$62
world 0% −$13
finance 0% +$6
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% +$3
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +19.8% +8.4% 71% 29% -14.1%
≤30d 39 +3.3% -6.5% 74% 26% -10.2%
≤90d 211 +0.3% -9.2% 73% 23% -9.1%
all 768 -15.8% -23.8% 54% 25% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 25% -8.5%
10% -31.1% 16% -17.2%
15% -37.8% 11% -25.2%
20% -43.9% 8% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$26 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$2,967
Realized+$5,080
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses416 / 352
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$182
Open positions26
Markets (closed)768 / 794
History coverage593d
Avg bet$485
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 768 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Australia 100¢ 100¢ $2,899 $2,903 +$4 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
XRP all time high by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 75¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+97%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 34¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-51%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 69¢ 95¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 72¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 54¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-71%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 46¢ 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-79%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 251 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $400 $0 +0%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $4,890 +$19 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $613 +$6 +1%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $4,666 −$649 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $100 −$19 -19%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $3,844 +$5 +0%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire Jun 05 $500 +$5 +1%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Somerset Jun 05 $875 +$2 +0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $3,929 +$6 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,690 +$4 +0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $2,357 +$3 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $2,699 +$3 +0%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $11 +$9 +83%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Singapore Jun 01 $5 $0 -2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $5 +$5 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $136 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $5,006 +$22 +0%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 31 $1 +$1 +73%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $960 +$6 +1%
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 May 31 $7 −$4 -68%
Will Abstract launch a token in 2025? May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $4,001 +$4 +0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $5,001 +$35 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $4,995 +$5 +0%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $984 +$10 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 28 $51 −$15 -30%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $4,210 +$26 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 27 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $1 $0 +25%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $10 +$8 +76%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $3,098 +$17 +1%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $701 +$2 +0%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 19 $1 $0 +4%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 0.5 May 19 $385 +$32 +8%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 0.5 May 19 $601 +$22 +4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $51 −$41 -82%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $4,997 +$46 +1%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $1,101 +$56 +5%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $50 +$3 +5%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 $0 +2%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5 May 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Australia 100¢ $1,297 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Australia 100¢ $998 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Australia 100¢ $598 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Australia 100¢ $5 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 100¢ $315 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 100¢ $84 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $188 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $15 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $47 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $2 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $70 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $1 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $70 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $34 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $429 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 99¢ $32 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 100¢ $2,000 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 100¢ $2,000 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $609 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $2,740 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 65¢ $1,277 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 99¢ $897 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 99¢ $111 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 99¢ $9 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 99¢ $99 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 99¢ $1,479 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 99¢ $374 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 99¢ $1,300 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 98¢ $49 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 98¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,967.18 · official $2,967.19 (match) · 2929 history records