Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6E 0x6e4f…bd1f crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$691per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$9
politics 8% −$1
economics 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage107d
Avg bet$691
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 26 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 16 $690 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 15 $665 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $691 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 29 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 29 $694 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $696 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $697 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $698 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 16? Mar 16 $698 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 11? Mar 11 $699 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $687 33m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $688 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $688 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $689 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $688 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $690 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $665 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $312 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $378 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $691 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $691 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $692 27d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? SELL No 100¢ $692 27d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $694 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 2? SELL No 100¢ $695 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $696 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $696 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $697 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $697 101d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $698 101d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $698 102d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $698 102d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $698 107d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $699 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records