Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e4f…b7d3 weather 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$291 (-13%) realized −$292 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days−$343
30 days−$490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 68% −$355
sports 29% −$13
other 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.0% -17.7% 43% 43% -3.8%
≤30d 65 -27.1% -34.0% 29% 28% -39.4%
≤90d 92 -13.8% -22.0% 37% 35% -25.3%
all 92 -13.8% -22.0% 37% 35% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 35% -25.3%
10% -29.5% 32% -32.5%
15% -36.3% 27% -39.0%
20% -42.6% 20% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$292
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 58
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage36d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 30¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 −$7 -22%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $45 −$15 -33%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $30 +$15 +49%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $27 +$14 +50%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $14 +$13 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $71 −$70 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $45 +$22 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $41 −$30 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$8 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $53 −$19 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1? Jun 09 $93 −$14 -16%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 3? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 22? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 18? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 22? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$12 +225%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$5 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$3 +32%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$5 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$9 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$2 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -41%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $12 −$9 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? Jun 03 $8 +$4 +46%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $55 −$47 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 +$5 +51%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 2? Jun 01 $25 −$12 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $46 −$26 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $29 −$19 -67%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $15 +$17 +108%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $15 −$5 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $56 +$15 +26%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $10 +$9 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $23 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 41¢ $24 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $30 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $45 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 88¢ $45 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $30 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 18¢ $5 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 3¢ $5 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $27 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $14 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? BUY Yes 78¢ $71 7d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 97¢ $67 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? SELL No 7¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? SELL No 16¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? SELL No 17¢ $8 7d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 10? BUY Yes 64¢ $38 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? SELL Yes 37¢ $33 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? BUY Yes 55¢ $38 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.19 · official $24.19 (match) · 227 history records