Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6e53…22ed politics 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$650 (+4%) realized +$808 · open −$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate85%69W / 12L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$116
14 days−$118
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% +$395
world 29% +$146
other 21% +$39
finance 2% +$35
tech 1% +$15
sports 1% +$79
culture 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.6% -6.3% 74% 42% -2.9%
≤30d 51 +1.8% -7.9% 84% 37% -6.2%
≤90d 74 +5.7% -4.3% 86% 36% -4.5%
all 81 +4.6% -5.4% 85% 37% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 37% -4.5%
10% -14.5% 15% -13.6%
15% -22.7% 9% -22.0%
20% -30.3% 5% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$68 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$1,524
Realized+$808
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses69 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)81 / 99
History coverage124d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June? No 94¢ 96¢ $141 $144 +$3 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $129 $139 +$10 (+8%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 95¢ 96¢ $123 $125 +$2 (+2%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 85¢ 94¢ $111 $123 +$12 (+11%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $102 $119 +$17 (+16%)
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in June? No 92¢ 98¢ $92 $98 +$6 (+7%)
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in June? No 94¢ 96¢ $94 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? No 95¢ 94¢ $95 $94 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? No 68¢ 94¢ $68 $94 +$26 (+38%)
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? No 94¢ 94¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump say "All In All Out" in June? No 88¢ 88¢ $88 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 89¢ 99¢ $70 $77 +$8 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 96¢ $68 $76 +$8 (+12%)
Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June? No 80¢ 80¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 27, 2026? No 89¢ 56¢ $89 $56 −$33 (-37%)
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $28 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Will Trump say "Sex" in June? No 91¢ 93¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "FIFA" this week? Jun 22 $185 +$15 +8%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 22 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Trump say "Soccer" this week? Jun 22 $94 +$5 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $48 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? Jun 19 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 17 $24 +$76 +324%
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? Jun 17 $107 +$43 +40%
Will Trump say "Memory" this week? Jun 17 $142 +$40 +28%
Will Trump say "Star" this week? Jun 17 $121 +$79 +66%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $113 +$7 +6%
Will Trump say "No No No" this week? Jun 16 $86 +$14 +17%
Will Trump say "Sacrifice" this week? Jun 16 $117 +$33 +28%
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? Jun 16 $89 +$11 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $114 +$6 +5%
Will Trump say "Uber" this week? Jun 15 $31 +$5 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Trump say "Sucker" this week? Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $38 +$3 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $95 +$5 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $140 +$10 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $304 +$26 +9%
Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" this week? Jun 08 $62 +$8 +13%
Will Trump say "Low Energy" this week? Jun 08 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" this week? Jun 08 $143 +$7 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $141 +$9 +6%
Will Trump say "Lion" this week? Jun 08 $251 +$19 +8%
Will Trump say "Braggadocious" in May? Jun 01 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Trump say "Golden Dome" in May? Jun 01 $34 +$16 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $90 +$10 +12%
Will Trump say "America Last" in May? Jun 01 $95 +$5 +5%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? Jun 01 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Trump say "Christmas" in May? Jun 01 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Trump say "Neville" or "Chamberlain" in May? Jun 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Trump say "Cat" in May? Jun 01 $152 +$23 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $96 +$4 +5%
Will Trump say "Asshole" in May? Jun 01 $99 +$19 +19%
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer" or "Buy a Dell Computer" in May? Jun 01 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Trump say "Darth Vader" in May? Jun 01 $123 +$13 +10%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 01 $202 +$30 +15%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 +$50 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 31 $45 +$5 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 31 $92 +$8 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 29 $96 +$4 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 27 $95 +$4 +5%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $98 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in June? BUY No 94¢ $8 14m
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in June? BUY No 94¢ $10 20m
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? BUY No 94¢ $94 1h
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 1h
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 1h
Will Trump say "Ay Ay Ay" in June? BUY No 80¢ $65 2h
Will Trump say "All In All Out" in June? BUY No 88¢ $88 2h
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in June? BUY No 94¢ $11 2h
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in June? BUY No 94¢ $19 2h
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in June? BUY No 93¢ $27 2h
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in June? BUY No 94¢ $19 2h
Will Trump say "Sex" in June? BUY No 91¢ $6 2h
Will Trump say "FIFA" this week? BUY No 93¢ $15 26h
Will Trump say "FIFA" this week? BUY No 93¢ $116 37h
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? BUY No 94¢ $14 37h
Will Trump say "Soccer" this week? BUY No 95¢ $35 38h
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? BUY No 94¢ $4 40h
Will Trump say "Soccer" this week? BUY No 95¢ $27 40h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 41h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 41h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 41h
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? BUY No 94¢ $16 41h
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? BUY No 93¢ $59 41h
Will Trump say "Soccer" this week? BUY No 94¢ $33 41h
Will Trump say "FIFA" this week? BUY No 91¢ $54 41h
Ebola case in the US by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $47 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $224 3d
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? BUY No 80¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,523.88 · official $1,524.65 (match) · 372 history records