Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

6E 0x6e53…1dab other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized −$3 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-15.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-6.2%	-15.1%	33%	33%	-54.9%
≤30d	3	-6.2%	-15.1%	33%	33%	-54.9%
≤90d	3	-6.2%	-15.1%	33%	33%	-54.9%
all	3	-6.2%	-15.1%	33%	33%	-54.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.1%	33%	-54.9%
10%	-23.3%	33%	-59.2%
15%	-30.7%	33%	-63.2%
20%	-37.5%	33%	-66.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -50% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$24 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.11 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$32

Realized−$3

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$33	$32	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$71	−$38	-54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$9	−$9	-100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$4	+$5	+136%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	16¢	$33	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	33¢	$32	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$71	4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	27¢	$9	4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	49¢	$9	5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$4	9h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.64 · official $31.64 (match) · 7 history records