Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:15:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6E 0x6e54…511e sports 456 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$764 (-1%) realized −$1,067 · open +$303
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%187W / 266L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1,000est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$785
7 days−$2,575
14 days−$2,774
30 days−$3,693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$706
other 1% −$687
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -21.7% -29.2% 30% 30% -26.7%
≤30d 242 -8.1% -16.8% 38% 37% -19.4%
≤90d 405 -13.5% -21.7% 38% 35% -22.5%
all 453 -7.1% -15.9% 41% 38% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 38% -11.3%
10% -24.0% 37% -19.8%
15% -31.3% 34% -27.5%
20% -38.0% 31% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$136 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,112
Realized−$1,067
Unrealized+$303
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses187 / 266
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,000
Open positions3
Markets (closed)453 / 456
History coverage155d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 453 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 50¢ 100¢ $500 $1,000 +$500 (+100%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner 4ikibamboni 51¢ 100¢ $29 $57 +$28 (+96%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) G2 44¢ 100¢ $24 $55 +$31 (+127%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Spirit 22¢ 0¢ $225 $0 −$224 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 166 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) Jun 19 $172 +$175 +102%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $37 −$36 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $107 +$100 +93%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $244 −$240 -98%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $28 −$28 -98%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $95 −$93 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 18 $365 −$358 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $281 +$243 +86%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $234 −$230 -98%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) Jun 18 $60 −$59 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $281 +$96 +34%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 18 $21 +$23 +114%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 18 $6 +$11 +197%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $34 −$4 -11%
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $67 −$66 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $118 −$115 -98%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $652 −$152 -23%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $12 +$1 +10%
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) Jun 17 $219 −$215 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $234 −$17 -7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $176 −$173 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $91 −$90 -98%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 16 $63 −$61 -98%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $71 +$184 +260%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $128 +$305 +239%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $70 −$69 -98%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 16 $69 −$68 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $204 +$296 +146%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $209 −$205 -98%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $133 −$4 -3%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $646 −$635 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 14 $224 −$220 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $36 +$32 +88%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $494 −$416 -84%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $873 +$447 +51%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $32 +$14 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $165 +$272 +165%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $299 −$295 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $224 −$219 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $46 −$46 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $214 −$210 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $159 +$99 +62%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $259 −$8 -3%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $165 −$161 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 51¢ $29 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 25¢ $128 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 20¢ $102 2h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY G2 44¢ $25 2h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 26¢ $37 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 49¢ $249 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 48¢ $244 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 51¢ $259 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 51¢ $107 8h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY Coalesce 23¢ $28 8h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $172 11h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 42¢ $2 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 36¢ $146 19h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 31¢ $45 20h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 34¢ $48 20h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 43¢ $219 20h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 46¢ $234 21h
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) BUY Hive 45¢ $16 25h
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) BUY Hive 41¢ $44 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 50¢ $191 29h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $90 30h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) BUY TDK 46¢ $21 34h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Yakult Brothers 25¢ $31 34h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 27¢ $34 34h
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) BUY HOTU 35¢ $6 35h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 34¢ $48 40h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 52¢ $12 41h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $269 41h
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $67 41h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 23¢ $118 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,111.74 · official $1,111.74 (match) · 1165 history records