Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:42:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e55…9705 crypto 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate84%37W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$11
14 days+$12
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.0% -6.8% 88% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 21 +1.7% -8.0% 86% 14% -7.6%
≤90d 22 -2.9% -12.1% 82% 14% -7.7%
all 44 -0.6% -10.1% 84% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 14% -9.0%
10% -18.7% 9% -17.7%
15% -26.6% 9% -25.7%
20% -33.8% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses37 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage145d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $1 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $67 +$5 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $63 +$6 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $23 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 21? Mar 23 $22 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 3? Mar 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $29 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 28? Mar 01 $56 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $12 +$11 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 13? Feb 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 18? Feb 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 16? Feb 17 $9 +$2 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 13? Feb 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $34 −$9 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $2 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 7? Feb 07 $1 +$1 +91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 5? Feb 05 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 92¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $75 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY No 83¢ $4 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $70 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $60 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL No 24¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 22¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $58 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? SELL No 1¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY No 2¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $40 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $46 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $3 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $58 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $34 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records