Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6E
0x6e57…e087
weather · 159 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$17 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses45 / 110
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)155 / 159
History coverage44d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 4 History 155 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$4
14 days+$0
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Yes 31¢ 37¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$4 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$9 +304%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$3 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 9? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$5 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$5 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 7? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 7? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$4 +361%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 2? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 2? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 2? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 2? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 2? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 6? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 2? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$7 +195%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 +$4 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 +$9 +210%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or below on May 31? May 31 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 82% −$37
other 17% +$22
sports 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 15h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 17h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 17h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? SELL Yes 75¢ $12 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 28h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 31h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 31h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 31h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 31h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 40h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 40h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -15.2% -23.3% 26% 24% -6.8%
≤30d 129 -24.1% -31.4% 27% 23% -16.2%
≤90d 155 -21.3% -28.8% 29% 26% -11.4%
all 155 -21.3% -28.8% 29% 26% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 26% -11.4%
10% -35.6% 23% -19.9%
15% -41.8% 19% -27.6%
20% -47.5% 15% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.92 · official $2.92 (match) · 414 history records