Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6E
0x6e58…2e77
other · 11 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
−$2 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage108d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 2 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 60¢ 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? No 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 +3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 25 $4 +$1 +24%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 10 $4 +$1 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Apr 18 $3 +$4 +133%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 18 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 26 $21 +$7 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$2
world 44% −$4
sports 8% +$5
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $2 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $10 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 14d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 16d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 18d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 33d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 73¢ $4 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 55d
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car BUY Joe Pyfer 43¢ $3 76d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 75¢ $20 78d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY No 74¢ $21 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -43.1% -48.5% 50% 25% -57.5%
≤90d 9 -3.9% -13.1% 67% 56% -10.7%
all 9 -3.9% -13.1% 67% 56% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 56% -10.7%
10% -21.4% 56% -19.3%
15% -29.0% 22% -27.1%
20% -36.0% 11% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.19 · official $2.19 (match) · 17 history records